📢The European Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgeons (ESCRS)NEWS ROUND-UP 👀 OCULUS...
The United States could face a 28% shortage of ophthalmologists by 2038, raising important questions about the future availability of specialist eye care. Demand is rising as the US population grows and ages, but the supply of new ophthalmologists is not keeping up. Without long-term workforce planning, the gap between patient need and clinical capacity will continue to widen.
What is driving the ophthalmologist shortage?
One of the most significant factors driving this demand is an ageing population. Older patients are more likely to require diagnosis, treatment and ongoing management for conditions such as cataracts, glaucoma, diabetic eye disease and age-related macular degeneration. As this patient population expands, ophthalmology services will need the clinical capacity to manage increasingly complex caseloads. At the same time, many ophthalmologists are nearing retirement, making it difficult to replace their experience while expanding the workforce.
Limited ophthalmology training capacity
The number of available ophthalmology residency places remains an important constraint on workforce growth. Ophthalmologists require many years of specialist education and clinical training. This means that workforce shortages cannot be resolved quickly. Decisions made today about residency capacity, funding and medical education will influence the availability of ophthalmologists for many years to come. Expanding training opportunities will therefore be essential, but increasing the number of places alone will not provide an immediate solution. The sector also needs to consider how it attracts, develops and retains the next generation of ophthalmologists.
What could the shortage mean for eye care?
A sustained ophthalmologist workforce gap could affect patients, healthcare providers and the wider ophthalmology market. Potential consequences include:
- Longer waiting times for specialist consultations and treatment.
- Greater workloads for practising ophthalmologists
- Increased pressure on hospitals, clinics and private practices
- Greater competition for experienced ophthalmology professionals
- More pronounced workforce shortages in underserved regions
These pressures may also make recruitment and retention increasingly important strategic priorities for ophthalmology organisations. Employers will need to look beyond immediate vacancies and focus on long-term talent pipelines, succession planning, working environments and professional development.
Can technology help increase capacity?
Diagnostic technology, artificial intelligence and more efficient care models can help ophthalmologists manage growing patient volumes. Improved imaging systems, remote monitoring and workflow automation may reduce administrative pressure, support earlier detection and allow clinical teams to use their time more effectively. Greater collaboration between ophthalmologists, optometrists and other eye care professionals could also help improve patient pathways. However, technology cannot replace the specialist clinical judgement, surgical expertise and patient care delivered by a qualified ophthalmologist. Innovation should support the workforce rather than be viewed as a substitute for it.
Preparing the ophthalmology workforce for 2038
Addressing the projected US ophthalmologist shortage will require coordinated, long-term action across medical education, healthcare policy and workforce strategy. Priorities should include expanding ophthalmology training capacity, improving retention, supporting succession planning and making specialist eye care careers attractive to future clinicians. For ophthalmology businesses and healthcare providers, forward workforce planning will become increasingly important. Organisations that invest early in their people, leadership pipelines and employer proposition will be better positioned to compete for scarce specialist talent. The projected 28% shortfall is more than a workforce statistic. It is a signal that the ophthalmology sector must begin preparing now to protect future access to high-quality eye care.
